Andy Schooler takes a look at the most eye-catching matches on Thursday’s order of play at Wimbledon 2025 – and picks out his best bets for them.
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Centre stage
Jan-Lennard Struff v Carlos Alcaraz (2nd on Centre Court)
The defending champion is always worth a watch and, after a second-round stroll against a qualifier, this should be much more competitive.
Struff was in fine form, particularly on serve, in taking down seed Felix Auger-Aliassime across the past two days and it interesting to look closely at the pair’s previous meetings.
As you’d expect, Alcaraz leads 3-1 with one of those wins coming here at Wimbledon three years ago.
However, that clash, like the other two Alcaraz victories, went all the way to a final set. Their most recent match, in fairly fast clay conditions up at altitude in Madrid last season, went to 7-6 in the decider.
The flat-hitting German does have the ability to rush opponents, especially on this surface, and if he continues in a similar serving vein, he can keep this competitive.
He gets a 7.5-game start on the handicap but with tie-breaks more than possible – there were two in that Madrid meeting and there’s been at least one in three of their four previous matches – I think over 30.5 games is the better bet.
For those seeking a bigger price, Struff to break first at 7/1 looks too large.
Best of British
Aryna Sabalenka v Emma Raducanu (3rd on Centre Court)
Raducanu sparkled to take down former champion Marketa Vondrousova on Wednesday and a repeat performance could trouble the world number one.
It’s another step up for the Briton but she has often delivered in SW19, twice making the last 16 and clearly enjoys the grass.
Sabalenka has the serve and power to cut through on this surface but I still don’t think she’s totally at home on it and that shone through against Marie Bouzkova in the last round when she could easily have fallen a set down. She didn’t have things all her own way against qualifier Carson Branstine, either.
Raducanu has often struggled for consistency so it’s hard to know exactly how much quality she will bring to this particular table but, given her high ceiling, I’m not keen on backing Sabalenka to win in straight sets at odds-on.
Over 20.5 games makes some appeal, although it’s far from a confident selection.
Around the grounds
Andrey Rublev v Adrian Mannarino (2nd on Court 3)
This could be an attractive match involving two contrasting styles.
Rublev will primarily look to win the match from the back of the court but Mannarino will produce some old-school serve-and-volley tactics, certainly at times.
The Frenchman has looked to be heading towards retirement at times this season, losing 10 matches in a row at one point. He also struggled during the clay campaign.
However, he’s always been best on a faster court where his attacking instincts can pay greater dividends and that’s been shown over the past week or so with Mannarino qualifying for this tournament and then winning two rounds in the main draw fairly comfortably.
There’s a chance Rublev is able to dismantle him here – it has happened in the past – but the Russian is hardly full of confidence himself and rarely looks far away from implosion on court these days. He’s admitted having mental struggles on the tour.
He’s had some issues in the early rounds here with Laslo Djere and Lloyd Harris both claiming sets against him. Five of the eight sets Rublev has played have gone to tie-breaks.
If Mannarino uses his lefty serve to full effect here, he could cause more problems.
With those tie-breaks in mind, over 38.5 games is the tentative call.
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